Story thread · 2 reports / 2 sources

Oil's shrug emoji era

axios.com · 11h · first reportShare

And the award for honesty in oil market analysis goes to ... J.P. Morgan! "For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view. We simply don't know how to model the endgame ," bank researchers said in a note (emphasis added). Why it matters: While the phrasing is unusually blunt, the sentiment is shared to varying degrees . Market watchers have come to grips with the likelihood that the status of the Strait of Hormuz — and the number of barrels getting through — will be messy for months to come. The big picture: At the outset of the Iran war, J.P. Morgan's "Oil Markets Weekly" crew assumed there were "economic red lines" the White House would not cross. The list includes $100 oil; gasoline near $5 per gallon; and 10-year Treasury yields hitting 5% (higher levels raise borrowing costs). And yet: "Six months later, many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more." The intrigue: The ongoing disruption of Middle East